Would you like to learn more about Statistical PERT® to estimate your project cost or schedule, or other uncertainties, like your agile team’s product release date?

Join me, William W. Davis, for a free, one-hour, monthly webinar where I demonstrate how to use the built-in, statistical functions inside Microsoft Excel® using a SPERT® spreadsheet.  Each month I’ll cover a different aspect of probabilistic estimation.

After attending, you’ll earn 1 PDU from the Project Management Institute and/or 1 SEU from the Scrum Alliance. A certificate of attendance is freely available upon request.

Registration for Risk Awareness Week 2021 is FREE! There is no cost to attend my presentation, but if you want access to ALL the presentations, there is a low-cost registration option.

My pre-recorded presentation is “A Beginner’s Path to Probabilistic Project Scheduling”. In this presentation, I’ll share the scheduling approach I used with a big, enterprise resource planning (ERP) upgrade project which shrank the project schedule by months but still maintained 95% reliability that the shortened schedule would not fail.

Learning objectives:

  • Understand how to model task/activity schedule uncertainty
  • Create a simple probabilistic project schedule using only Excel
  • Understand how to right-size a schedule buffer
  • Create a right-size schedule buffer for any project

Registration is required. There is no cost to attend.

If you like this month’s topic but can’t make the date, register anyway. I’ll send you a link to the recorded webinar a few days after the live event.

The October topic is: “Create a Probabilistic Schedule to Shrink the Project Timeline (And Increase the Chance of Success!) Using Statistical PERT® Beta Edition“. This summer, I completed a long, enterprise resource planning (ERP) upgrade for my employer. This was a very large, traditional project. Using a probabilistic schedule allowed us to shrink the overall project timeline by months but we also maintained very high confidence we would be successful because we anticipated bad things would happen throughout the project. Come hear my story and learn the technique I used, which used the SPERT Scheduler worksheet inside the Statistical PERT Normal Edition spreadsheet.

Download SPERT® Beta Edition (a freely licensed spreadsheet) before or after the webinar.

Questions we’ll tackle in the webinar:

  • What is the usual way projects are scheduled (and what’s wrong with “the usual way”)?
  • Why is creating a probabilistic schedule superior to creating a deterministic schedule?
  • How does the beta distribution work to model uncertainty?
  • How can you create a probabilistic schedule using Statistical PERT Beta Edition?
  • How can you create a right-sized schedule buffer to protect teh project?

Future monthly webinars (tentative):

  • November – Learn how to use statistical bootstrapping to create an agile forecast. Appropriate for both Scrum and Kanban, bootstrapping takes what is known—the team’s work history of getting stuff done—to create a probabilistic forecast of what the team might get done in the future.
  • December – Learn how to easily create a project budget for both Scrum and non-Scrum projects using MyScrumBudget™. This simple-to-use Excel spreadsheet can quickly create an initial budget for any project team. It’s great for re-forecasting your project cost, or any time you have to execute a change request!

Be alerted when new topics are announced and when registration opens for the next monthly webinar.  Join my free, monthly newsletter!

Got an idea for a great webinar topic related to probabilistic estimation?  Contact me!

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