My Mission

To make estimation easy and useful.  That’s my mission.

I developed Statistical PERT® to equip project managers, agile teams, business analysts, executives and students with a simple, freely available, probabilistic estimation technique to estimate uncertain, future outcomes.  Using Statistical PERT, everyone can be better aligned about the nature of uncertainty, and decision-makers can make more informed decisions about both probable and improbable outcomes.

My Vision

Everyone can easily estimate uncertain future outcomes.  That’s my vision.

I want everyone who makes important decisions to know that Statistical PERT is easy to use and freely available. I want everyone to know when, and how, to use Statistical PERT to solve an estimation problem. I want individuals and teams to be better aligned about the uncertainties they jointly face. Finally, I want decision-makers to make better, more informed decisions that evaluate both probable and improbable future outcomes.

No one can faultlessly control future outcomes, but we can all make better decisions about what is likely – and unlikely – to occur in the future.

My Four Values

  1. Forecasting future outcomes is preferable to predicting them
  2. Estimates need only to be accurate enough to make a good decision
  3. Estimation does not have to be difficult, expensive, or inaccessible
  4. Estimation is better when it involves both the heart and the head